Demand forecasting and ready supplier orders
The system forecasts demand for every item and calculates how much to order, taking into account stock in transit, batch multiples and shelf life. The buyer makes the final decision.
Status: In production at a restaurant group with catering (daily supplier requests) and at a veterinary and pharmacy products brand (monthly orders to manufacturers).
The problem
- The buyer calculates orders by hand in spreadsheets, and the logic lives in their head.
- Some items are overstocked, and cash sits frozen in the warehouse. Others run out, and sales are lost.
- An order takes months to arrive, so today's mistake only shows up a quarter later.
- Seasonality, promotions and new items are estimated by eye.
Data and an agreed accuracy measure first, then the forecast.
We build it on your data and test it on past months the system has not seen before we promise anything.
Brief
:How you buy today, from whom, with what lead times, minimum batches and constraints.
Data audit
:The history of sales, stock and supplier orders from your accounting system. The key question is whether stockouts are visible. If they aren't, the system learns an empty warehouse instead of demand.
Agreeing on accuracy
:Together we decide how to measure accuracy: how many weeks ahead, per item or per group, in units or in money. We compare with how your buyer calculates today.
Test on past months
:The system forecasts months it hasn't seen, and we compare the result with actual sales before trusting it with money.
- a human confirms
An app for the buyer
:A ready order, edits with a reason, a history of decisions.
Controlled forecast updates
:A new forecast version goes live only if it tests no worse than the previous one.
A ready order, with the reasons behind it.
The system calculates, the buyer decides. The system also learns from the buyer's edits and the reasons behind them.
- A demand forecast for every item with an explanation: season, promotions, trend.
- A ready supplier order that accounts for stock in transit, batch multiples, safety stock and shelf life.
- A monthly purchasing budget built into the calculation as a limit.
- A monthly forecast vs. actual report.
- Buyer edits with a reason, which the system learns from.
Where we get the data and where the order goes.
- livein production
- donebuilt in another project
- per projectfirst connection in your project; we have already checked the documentation
- 1C / BAS accounting: reading sales and stock: per project: direct connection or file exchange; documentation checked
- Excel and Google Sheets: order export: per project: we've worked with Google Sheets in other projects
- Telegram alerts: done: in our systems in production
- Restaurant tills: daily sales from every location: live: in production at a restaurant group with catering
- Forecasting model: live: in production at a restaurant group and at a veterinary and pharmacy products brand
Paid step by step, with a known price at every step.
First we look at what your data holds, and only then do we promise anything.
Timeline and accuracy
After the data audit
Before the audit, we don't name a timeline or an accuracy target.
Price
- 1Brief$0
- 2Diagnostic and data audit$300
- 3Pilot$2,500–3,500
- 4System$6,000–15,000
We name the exact system price after the diagnostic. The brief is free.
What it looks like in practice.
Two case studies in production: daily supplier requests for a restaurant group with catering, and a monthly order to manufacturers for a veterinary and pharmacy products brand.
Forecast-based purchasing for 4 restaurants and catering, where 7.5% of purchased food goes to waste, was 21%
Read the caseA demand forecast and a monthly order to manufacturers
Read the caseWe'll show the demo on your data
A forecast for past months of your sales, set against what actually sold.
Questions about forecasting.
What accuracy do you guarantee?
We set the target after testing on past months of your data. High accuracy is usually achievable on items that sell often, but not on rare ones.
How much history do you need?
The quality of the data matters more than the number of years: stockout flags, a promotions calendar, a dated history of supplier orders. We define the minimum during the audit.
Who decides on the order?
The buyer. The system gives a ready calculation with an explanation, and a person approves or edits it.
Does the forecast update on its own?
At the press of a button or on a schedule, but a new version goes live only if testing shows it is no worse.
Aren't sales to retail chains different from shopper demand?
Yes, shipments to retail chains and marketplaces are not the same as sales to end customers. We account for this in the data audit and in the forecast.